US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%

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Screen the entire US equity universe by three hard criteria—trailing 3-year ROE sustained above 15%, positive free cash flow, and reasonable valuation—and surface one stock per day

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/21 21:20:25

RSG — The #2 US waste operator, 18% ROE, $2.6B FCF, and a Moody's A3 upgrade — at fair-value P/E with peer-group-low EV/EBITDA

Republic Services (NYSE: RSG) cleared all three screening gates for June 21, 2026: ROE of 17.11% / 18.62% / 18.30% for FY2023–FY2025, free cash flow positive in every period ($1.99B → $2.08B → $2.41B → $2.59B TTM), and a trailing P/E of 29.40× roughly at its own five-year average. The valuation gate is borderline — not a deep discount — but the EV/EBITDA of 14.83× sits at the low end of the waste-sector peer group, the highest ROE among listed peers (18.12% vs. Waste Connections' 13.12%), and a 4.11% FCF yield that funds $750M in dividends plus $1.1B in buybacks annually. The second Environmental Services pick in two days, differentiated from WM by lower leverage (D/E 1.11× vs. 2.28×), Moody's A3 credit (upgraded April 2025), and a distinct three-segment structure. Q2 2026 earnings expected late July.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/20 21:22:09

SHW — America's paint compounder with a 60%+ ROE, trading at its own five-year P/E average while 82% above peers

Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW) cleared all three screening gates for June 20, 2026: ROE of 70.07% / 69.05% / 59.39% for FY2023–FY2025 (confirmed via both StockAnalysis and SEC XBRL), free cash flow positive in every period ($2.63B → $2.08B → $2.65B → $2.91B TTM), and a trailing P/E of 30.79× in line with its own five-year average. The valuation gate is flagged — not failed — because SHW trades 82% above the specialty coatings peer median. The central tension: the #1 U.S. architectural paint company, with 4,900+ owned stores and a 49-year dividend growth streak, at a peer premium that requires housing demand recovery to justify. Q2 2026 earnings on July 21.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/19 21:18:28

WM — North America's dominant waste hauler, trading at the sector's lowest EV/EBITDA with a 30%+ ROE

Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM) cleared all three screening gates: ROE of 33.08% / 36.24% / 29.70% for FY2023–FY2025 (all well above 15%), free cash flow that grew from $1.82B to $3.29B TTM at a 13% three-year CAGR, and an EV/EBITDA of 14.21× — the lowest in the waste-sector peer group, below RSG (14.83), WCN (15.77), GFL (15.82), and CWST (16.36). The trailing P/E of 31.06× sits 4.2% below WM's own five-year average. The central tension: a 13.5% pullback from the 52-week high against a business generating $3.3B in annual FCF, with a $3B buyback and 22-year dividend growth streak, while the $7.5B Stericycle integration works through the income statement.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/18 21:19:24

CBOE — the options exchange monopoly at a 5-year P/E low, with a -31% drawdown and RSI 27

Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) is today's sole primary qualifier from a 6-candidate screen. ROE cleared 15% in every year — 20.44% / 18.51% / 23.36% (FY2023–FY2025), SEC XBRL cross-verified — while free cash flow surged from $1.03B to $2.72B TTM. The trailing P/E of 21.75× sits 32% below CBOE's five-year average and carries a 10.22% FCF yield — the highest in the exchange-operator peer group. The central tension: a -31% drawdown since June 2 when Kalshi/Coinbase received perpetual-futures approval, creating an oversold setup (RSI 27.6) in a franchise with a 50-year regulatory moat on SPX and VIX derivatives. Q2 2026 earnings (est. July 31) will show whether the selloff was justified.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/17 21:23:50

PAYX — the payroll compounder at a 5-year P/E low, with earnings in one week

Paychex (PAYX) is the sole qualifier from a 5-candidate screen. ROE held above 40% in each of FY2023–FY2025 (47.35% / 46.35% / 41.80%), free cash flow grew from $1.56B to $2.09B TTM, and the trailing P/E of 22.14× sits approximately 26% below PAYX's own five-year average of ~30×. The central tension: the Paycor acquisition created $5B in debt and brought organic growth to nearly zero in the near term, while Citi upgraded to Buy at $140 (+41% upside) on June 15 — two days before this article — citing the strongest bookings growth in over a decade as evidence of organic re-acceleration. The WISE agentic AI platform (launched May 2026) is the long-cycle growth story. The immediate catalyst is Q4 FY2026 earnings on June 24, where FY2027 guidance will either validate or challenge the re-acceleration thesis. The 4.31% dividend yield, backed by 74% FCF payout coverage, adds an income floor.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/16 21:27:07

FDS — a 47-year-old financial data franchise trading at a 15× P/E

FactSet Research Systems (NYSE: FDS) is the sole qualifier from a six-stock screen. With ROE of 29–32% across FY2023–FY2025, $683M in TTM free cash flow (7.95% yield), and a trailing P/E of 15.17× — 55.3% below its five-year average and 44.9% below the peer median — FDS presents a deep-value contrarian thesis. The stock has lost approximately 50% of its value over 12 months, driven by an EPS miss, a February 2026 AI-disruption selloff, and full C-suite turnover. Revenue continues to grow (+7.1% YoY), retention exceeds 95%, and guidance was raised. The key near-term event: Q3 FY2026 earnings on July 1, 2026.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/15 21:34:02

ODFL — The LTL carrier that earns like software

Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ: ODFL) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of 31.34% / 27.90% / 23.93% for FY2023–FY2025 (well above the 15% threshold each year), positive and growing free cash flow ($811.8M → $1.018B TTM), and a trailing P/E of 51.30× that sits below the LTL peer median of ~60× despite being above ODFL's own 5-year average of 32.39×. The article covers the full bull/bear framework — including the June 10 Amazon LTL entry that triggered a 5% single-session selloff, the Citi Sell downgrade, the May operating update showing +12.3% daily revenue acceleration, and the incremental margin leverage that makes ODFL a leveraged play on the freight cycle recovery.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/14 21:34:17

MCO — The wide-moat oligopolist at a 5-year valuation low

Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) passes all three hard screening criteria: trailing 3-year ROE of 52–62% (FY2023–FY2025, SEC XBRL verified), positive FCF every year ($1.88B–$2.75B TTM), and trailing P/E of 32.13× sitting 17.5% below its own 5-year average of 38.95× with EV/EBITDA at a 5-year low. The stock is down 12.3% YTD despite an S&P credit rating upgrade to A−, record FCF, record Q1 2026 issuance volumes ($2 trillion quarterly record), and Moody's Analytics ARR accelerating to $3.6B (+8%). Bull case: mean-reversion to the 5-year P/E average implies 21% upside; structural MA diversification (98% recurring revenue, 45% of total revenue) buffers MIS cyclicality; private credit revenue +80% YoY. Bear case: NRSRO duopoly premium vs. SPGI, persistent insider selling, macro sensitivity to bond issuance cycles. Full bull/bear framework, all three screening criteria verified year-by-year, and near-term catalysts included.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/13 21:22:16

LMT — The defense compounder trading at a 22% discount to its peer group

Lockheed Martin passes all 3 screening gates: ROE 85.96%/81.05%/76.87% (FY2023–25), positive FCF every year ($5.3B–$7.7B), trailing P/E 26.20× — 22% below defense peer median. Bull/bear framework included.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/12 21:25:05

ITW — The 80/20 compounder trading at a 33% discount to its own peer group

Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW) passes all three hard screening criteria — ROE of 98.1% / 105.2% / 95.0% for FY2023–FY2025 (buyback-compressed equity; ROIC ~29–32%), positive free cash flow every year since at least 2021 ($1.9B–$3.1B annually), and a trailing P/E of 23.62× sitting 33% below the diversified industrial peer-median of 35.25×. The central tension: ITW's 80/20 Front-to-Back simplification strategy has expanded operating margins from 24.1% to 26.3% on flat revenue, yet the stock has returned just 3.1% over 12 months versus the S&P's 24.3%. A 50+ year Dividend King with S&P A+ / Moody's A1 (positive outlook) credit, offering a 6.27% combined FCF + dividend yield. Q2 2026 earnings expected ~July 29.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/12 16:08:52

ADP — Payroll's durable king, repriced at a four-year low

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ: ADP) clears all three hard screening criteria — ROE of 101.33% / 93.14% / 76.00% for FY2023–FY2025 (buyback-compressed equity; ROIC 6.4–8.6%), $5.3B in trailing free cash flow (5.87% yield), and a trailing P/E of 21.07× sitting 23.5% below its 5-year average of 27.53×. The stock is down 28% over 12 months — the smallest decline in a peer group where Intuit fell 64% and Workday 48% — while EPS grew from $9.98 to $10.72. Float income on $48.3B in client funds drives a third high-margin revenue stream sensitive to Fed rate policy. 51 consecutive years of dividend growth. Q4 FY2026 full-year earnings on July 29, 2026 are the next verification event.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026/06/11 21:27:07

QCOM — The cheapest chip stock on every multiple, carrying a $7B time bomb

Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) clears all three hard screening criteria: GAAP ROE of 37.07% / 42.25% / 23.34% for FY2023–FY2025 (SEC XBRL verified), $12.5B in trailing free cash flow (6.20% yield), and a trailing P/E of 20.89× sitting within 8% of its own 5-year average. The TTM ROE of −1.79% on commercial platforms is a non-cash accounting artifact — a $5.7B deferred tax valuation allowance recorded in Q4 FY2025 that was fully reversed in Q2 FY2026. QCOM trades at a 66% discount to semiconductor peer-median P/E with the highest FCF yield in the peer group, but faces a confirmed $7–8B annual revenue loss when Apple's C2 modem replaces Qualcomm chips starting September 2026. Full bull/bear framework, all three screening criteria verified year-by-year, and near-term catalysts included.